2024's Biggest POE Player Discovery -Faustus Reveals Divination Card Drop Rates - Path Of Exile 3.25

#pathofexile #poe #droprates

The POE playerbase (well some of us) might have just reverse-engineered the drop rate of every divination card in the game. With the help of the Settlers of Kalguur Currency Exchange.

Note that Faustus appears to round gold costs DOWN to multiples of 5, 25 or 50 depending upon how large the cost is, so when the game tells you the cost is 175, it might actually be "190 rounded down to 175".

Drop Rate, Common Cards: An integer close to 1000000/(gold cost to trade for that card).
Drop Rate, Uncommon and Rare Cards: An integer close to 13 billion/(gold cost to trade for that card cubed)

Example, common card (The Lover): 1 million divided by 10 - it's ABOUT 100k
Example, uncommon card (The Fortunate): 13 billion/(175^3) = about 2425 (probably actually 1800, the Fortunate looks to be the very rarest 175 gold cost card, it might actually be 195-199 gold rounded down to 175)
Example, rare card (The Doctor): 13 billion/(925^3) = about 16

The cards you care most about (trade league players):

Unrequited Love - 4
The Apothecary - 9
The Doctor - 16
Fire of Unknown Origin - 16
I See Brothers - 26 or 27
Progeny of Lunaris - 31, 32, 33 or 34
Brother's Gift - 60 (give or take a couple)
The Fortunate - probably 1800 (can't rule out quite a bit higher)

A spreadsheet of workings-out without explanation (not explained in the video either): https://www.sirgog.com/wp-content/upl... - it's ... probably... somewhat able to be followed, but it makes sense to me and that's what matters lol. It has upper and lower bounds for the drop rates of all uncommon and rare cards on sheet 2.

0:00 Intro
0:53 Defining common, uncommon and rare cards (there's 77 common cards, 181 uncommon, 165 rare and 11 on the border of uncommon and rare & I can't tell which side they fall)
1:26 Acknowledgements. This isn't just my work.
2:19 How We Used To Estimate Div Card Drop Rates - Intuition and Stacked Decks
4:21 The 3.24 Stacked Deck Changes And How They Krangled The Old System
5:02 Faustus and the Currency Exchange - The New Stacked Deck?
6:05 The First Hint - The 1850-1600 Gap
6:32 The Hunt For A Formula - The Headhunter Cube Hints
8:08 That's Not Enough Evidence. Exalted Orbs? Divine Orbs? Lots of cards for them!
8:48 The Assumptions Made For The Divine/Exalt/Annul Test
9:16 The Results: A Perfect Score
9:55 Where It Broke Down - Common Cards (4 times as common as The Fortunate and more common)
10:57 Quick sidenote (reiterated later) - don't farm Unrequited Love
11:07 The Common Card Exception - GGG Lowered The Gold Cost To Trade Them
11:17 The Formula For Determining Rarity From Gold Cost To Trade
12:05 The Hunt For The Constant 'Y' and 'Y' I thought it was 13 billion
12:38 More On That 1850-1600 Gap & The Info It Hid
13:28 Were div cards buffed to compensate for div scarab nerfs?
14:45 Why I think 'Y' is exactly 13 billion (somewhat speculative)
15:19 Final Formula
16:00 Quick Note On Rounding - Where The Error Margins Come From
16:44 Best Cards To Farm. SSF - don't farm anything with gold cost at least 600. Trade - Apothecary is S tier, Fire of Unknown Origin A+ tier, all Divine Orb cards A tier, Progeny of Lunaris B+ tier, I See Brothers B tier, cards for mirror shards B- tier.
17:50 Why The Unrequited Love Estimate Is Wrong. Don't Farm This Card.
18:33 What About Players Who Hate Ultra-Rare Jackpot Drops? Farm The Fortunate If That's You.
18:58 Final Words

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