Contribution Analysis

Contribution analysis explores attribution and used to confirm or revise the theory of change.

Six steps are followed.
First, determine the specific questions being addressed. For example
Has the program influenced the observed result?
Is it reasonable to conclude that the program has made a difference?

Secondly obtain a copy of the Theory of Change

In third step gather existing evidence around the theory of change. This might come from any evaluations, monitoring or research conducted.

For the fourth step produce the contribution story.

Here we decide why it is reasonable to assume that the actions of the program have contributed to the observed outcomes.

In the fifth step look for additional evidence to validate areas where the contribution story is less credible.

You will need to consider how reasonable the assumptions are and consider any weaknesses identified.

Additional evidence might be needed from surveys, field visits and focus groups etc.

The final step is finalising the contribution story.
Where a strong contribution story is produced the Theory of Change is robust.
Where a credible story cannot be told the Theory of Change will need adjusting.