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Canada’s Q4 2025 GDP Fell: Inventory Shock, Government Spending, and What It Means for Rate Cuts

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Canada’s real GDP fell 0.2% in Q4 2025, largely driven by businesses running down inventories after earlier stockpiling tied to trade-war and tariff concerns, with RBC estimating inventories subtracted about 4.2 percentage points from growth. Household spending rose 0.4%, suggesting consumers didn’t collapse, while business capital investment edged down 0.1% with declines in residential and non-residential investment, including weaker resale activity, renovations, and softer new construction. Government capital spending propped up GDP, led by increased investment in weapons systems, up nearly 50% in 2025, marking a third straight year where government investment contributed more than business CapEx. Exports were up 1.5% in Q4 but 2025’s 1.7% growth was dragged by lower exports to the U.S. December industry GDP rose 0.2%, while early January 2026 was essentially flat, keeping the rate-cut debate and recession risk uncertain.

00:00 GDP Shrinks Headline
00:56 Inventory Swing Explained
02:07 Households Holding Up
02:36 Business Investment Weakness
03:09 Government Props Growth
04:03 Trade And Export Volatility
04:42 Monthly Vs Quarterly GDP
05:53 Rate Cuts Debate
06:45 What To Watch Next
07:37 Recession Risk Wrap Up

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