SIPTA Seminar by D. Guyonnet: Application of uncertainty theory in the field of environmental risks

ABSTRACT: The management of environmental hazards is largely based on the assessment of risk; i.e., risk for human health and/or for ecosystems (water, soil, air, …). Environmental risks pertain to real-world systems that are typically incompletely known; hence risk is affected by significant uncertainty. Historically, the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessments has relied largely on the use of oftentimes subjective single probability distributions. Since around 30 years, alternative uncertainty theories have been applied, including the general framework of imprecise probabilities with, e.g., possibility theory and belief functions. This presentation will provide specific examples of application of such uncertainty theories to environmental hazards, with a special focus on hazards related to soil and water pollution. It will show how possibility theory and belief functions are well suited for representing information typically available in these contexts. The issue of uncertainty propagation in risk assessment modelling will be addressed and also the question of communication on risk and associated uncertainties with third-party stakeholders.

This talk is part of a series of seminars on imprecise probabilities that are organized by SIPTA, the "Society for Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications". We also organize conferences and schools, provide documentation and maintain a mailing list and blog. More information is available at http://sipta.org. Info on the SIPTA seminars in particular is available at http://sipta.org/events/sipta-seminars

Contents
00:00 - Start
04:21 - Introduction
14:09 - Communicating on information theories
22:51 - Examples of IP applications to environmental problems
43:33 - Communicating on IPs
46:12 - Conclusions