How I Predict a Runner’s Marathon Time - Data Dive

Use my simple checklist to analyse your run data to predict your goal marathon time and pacing strategy.

Setup and Data Collection
Access training data using TrainingPeaks or your device account. Ensure you're familiar with the interface (see the TP tutorial if needed:    • TrainingPeaks Walkthrough for Runners...  ).
Identify Key Workouts:
Focus on "marathon-specific" workouts such as a long run with 10K, 15K, or other tempo efforts that simulate marathon conditions. These are critical for assessing endurance and pace sustainability.
Data Analysis
Review Workout Details:
For each key workout, examine the following data points:
Heart Rate: Check average heart rate and how it aligns with targeted zones.
Power Output: Analyze consistency within the desired power zones.
Pace: Observe the running pace and compare it against expected pace for race goals.
Consistency Check:
Assess the consistency of performance across multiple workouts. Ensure the runner maintains a stable heart rate and power output close to target zones without significant deviations.
Advanced Metrics Review:
Look at splits (e.g., first 10K split in a longer workout) to evaluate pace sustainability.
Analyze peak and average heart rates to gauge effort levels and potential overexertion.

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